Complex Numbers

Occam's Nail Clippers

Today I'm linking an article about Occam's toothbrush. Wait, no... razor. That's it.

https://fs.blog/2019/10/occams-razor/

How to Use Occam’s Razor Without Getting Cut

Occam’s razor (also known as the “law of parsimony”) is a problem-solving principle which serves as a useful mental model. A philosophical razor is a tool used to eliminate improbable options in a given situation. Occam’s is the best-known example.

Before you go running away, this isn't limited to profound scientific inquiries. It's a useful tool for ordinary life. For example, if you come home to a messy house after a short vacation, you can make up all kinds of scenarios: an opossum got in, burglars trashed the place, the cops executed a search warrant, aliens teleported in and were looking for their missing zap gun, etc.; but if you have a teenager, well, Occam's Razor says it was probably the teenager.

Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected.

A "hypothesis" is basically a possible explanation. In the above example, all of the possible scenarios are possible. Well, except maybe the aliens one. Maybe.

In simpler language, Occam’s razor states that the simplest explanation is preferable to one that is more complex. Simple theories are easier to verify. Simple solutions are easier to execute.

More importantly, simpler theories are easier to falsify. Your car is rattling? Check the easy stuff first. If it's not that, move on to the more complex.

For example, the principle of minimum energy supports Occam’s razor. This facet of the second law of thermodynamics states that wherever possible, the use of energy is minimized. Physicists use Occam’s razor in the knowledge that they can rely on everything to use the minimum energy necessary to function.

That's certainly true for me. Why expend more energy than necessary?

The article goes on to expand upon the use of this philosophical tool in several disciplines, but, like I said, it's also useful for everyday life.

It is important to note that, like any mental model, Occam’s razor is not foolproof. Use it with care, lest you cut yourself. This is especially crucial when it comes to important or risky decisions. There are exceptions to any rule, and we should never blindly follow the results of applying a mental model which logic, experience, or empirical evidence contradict. When you hear hoofbeats behind you, in most cases you should think horses, not zebras—unless you are out on the African savannah.

When you hear hoofbeats behind you, best not to think too hard about it - just run. To the side. Don't do what they do in the movies and when there's something bearing down on you, just keep running in a straight line. I've heard this called "The Prometheus School Of Running Away From Things," but nobody remembers that awful movie now.

This is why it’s important to remember that opting for simpler explanations still requires work. They may be easier to falsify, but still require effort. And that the simpler explanation, although having a higher chance of being correct, is not always true.

And that bit is why I bothered to link the article. Too many people stop thinking once they've worked out the simplest explanation. To go back to the example I used above, when you come home to a messy house and blame your teenagers, what if it turns out they weren't home, either, and there are also scorch marks in your front yard? Well, then, the space alien explanation is looking more probable, isn't it?