The Undiscovered Country

Playing the Odds

Dave called me at work at 4:30 to let me know my doctor's office called, and to call them back when I get a chance.

Knowing it had to do with the results of my AFP blood tests where they check for neurological and genetic disorders such as spina bifida and Down's Syndrome.

They didn't answer, so I had to leave a message. That was a long hour as my mind went through the darkest possibilities.

This is what the nurse told me:

For the neurological disorders, my pretest odds were at 1:100. My blood test indicated a 1:10,000 chance. I can live with that!

For the Down's, the pretest odds sat at 1:130. My tests indicated a substantial drop to 1:30 or 3%. I now have to let the doctor know whether or not to have the Amniocentesis done to find out for certain.

After talking about it with Dave for about a minute, we decided not. 3% isn't great, but they're not horrible either. I've gambled on lower odds; not more than $20, but I've still gambled.

Now for the other thoughts that went through my head.

Every parent-to-be wants a perfect child, one smarter, stronger and more beautiful than them, with a future even brighter.

I would be a liar if I said I wouldn't be disappointed if indeed our Thomas has Down's. Sure, I’m thinking of myself and the challenges Dave and I would endure, but I’m also thinking of Thomas and the challenges he would have to face with a mental handicap.

There is one question I have to ask myself: Could I love him completely and without reservation as if he were as perfect as every parent hopes?

It’s an unqualified yes!

As I told my mom weeks ago; I will take whatever child God chooses to give me. I will simply have to trust Him that no matter what happens, Dave and I will be the parents Thomas needs; to love him, to teach him, and give him the confidence to face whatever life throws at him.

That’s my singular hope and prayer, whether Thomas is healthy or not.

I’m not convinced Thomas has Down’s. Quite the contrary. Still, I must consider the possibility, and prepare – as much as any one can anyway.

*Fast forward one hour*

With time always comes a longer view.

I could look at the blood test results as having increased three-fold, or I could look at the raw percentages:

1:130 is equal to 0.008% chance of Down’s, or 99.992% against.

1:30 is equal to 3% chance, or 97% against.

97% are good odds looking at it that way, so really, I have no reason to worry.

Still, even if that 3% ends up 100%, Thomas is still the child God gave Dave and I to love and take care of to the best of our ability. Nothing will ever change that.