L'aura del Campo

Montana - Villanova tonight on ESPN2 @ 8 ET.

Well, it's championship day in Chattanooga.

...and I don't like the forecast: rainy and wet, 40 and dipping temps. The Grizz do not know much about playing in wet; although, last week's win in the snow was fairly impressive.

I'll be at the Wilma watching with hundreds of other fans. Last year was dismal; the team came out flat. This year we hope for better as the comeback against the Jacks of South Dakota was inspiring and the effort against Appalachian State consistent. The Grizz have won it all twice: 1995, 2001.

For those who may catch the football game on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. VillanovaTime (6 p.m. MontanaStandardTime):

Both teams have great offenses. On a normal day one would expect a high scoring game (over 60 combined points).

Villanova plays in the Colonial League, the best in the FCS. They have quality wins over CAA teams and Temple as well. Their only loss was at New Hampshire, which they avenged two weeks ago. They won last week 14-13 over William & Mary, one of the best defensive teams in the nation. Nova is a team that runs. Stuff the run?

Offense	55 TDs 	377.9 Yards 	145.6 Pass	232.4 Rush

Defense	22 TDs	308.0 Yards	240.8 Pass 	 67.2 Rush

5 players rushing over 100 yards averaging 4.7-7.0 (Szczur). Only 2 players over 20 receptions. Punt: 37.8 average. One touchdown on kick-off return, averaging 14-27.6 yards (Szczur). Punt return average 6.6 yards. Threw 4 interceptions and intercepted 18 (+14). Sacked 34 times.

Montana plays in the Big Sky. Their win over Appalachian State last week was against the strongest opponent they have faced all season. They are undefeated with 14 wins, no team (FBS included) has more wins in this decade. Their closest brush with a loss was against a weak Idaho State team, winning 12-10 at the last moment in Pocatello. Special teams have made the difference to a balanced attack. They can put up incredible points in a very short time; but, if they come out flat they are in trouble.

Offense	62 TDs	427.6 Yards 	260.2 Pass 	167.4 Run

Defense	30 TDs	346.7 Yards	255.4 Pass	 91.4 Run

Sacked 19 times and intercepted 10 times. But... have 25 interceptions from their defense (+15). 7 players over 20 passing receptions. Punt is 41.3 avg. 2 touchdowns on kick-off and punt returns. Averages 24-26 yards on kickoffs and 16 on punts. Rushing: 4.3-4.9 yds; two main rushers.

At the end of the 1st quarter: UM losing 3-4-7 (56-64); at the half winning 10-4 (163 additional points to 76); at the 3rd quarter: 9-4-1 (scoring 117 to 56); at the 4th quarter 13-0-1 (171 points to 63). They beat Northern Arizona in overtime. Montana is definitely a 2nd and 4th quarter team. They tend to come out cold at the beginning of the game; much abetter after a halftime talk by the coach.

My (humble) Analysis:

Field position: If Nova can run and get first downs they can back Montana up against the goal posts or at least score field goals. Even so... Montana is very good at running back kicks of all sorts and rarely finds themselves backed up. If Nova can't get across the 50 yard line they will find the Griz in their faces.

The passing game belongs to Montana. Especially if the defense can sack the Nova quarterback. The running game belongs to Nova, one of the best in the nation. Special teams: both kick-offs and punting favors Montana. The weather? Who knows, but it's not in Montana's favor.

Szczur: He makes the Nova team dangerous. Montana has multiple weapons. Both coaches are good at what they do, but Montana's Hauck manages to find the right weapon every game.

I don't know how emotion and momentum plays out for Villanova. Montana seems to thrive on both... if they come out flat... it could be a long night.

Marc Mariani for Montana and Matt Szczur for Villanova are All-Americans. Chase Reynolds however had a huge day for Montana last week and may very well be called on again. Will Villanova be able to run as well in the wet as they normally do (I suspect so)? Will Montana?

One other thing about Montana's Mariani and Reynolds... they were both in Chattanooga last year.

Expect the game to be close at the half or Nova up by a few points.

PS: I don't predict a winner, nor the score.

Montana: 32º and cloudy in downtown Missoula at 3 p.m.
Philadelphia: 29º and clear but under heavy snow warnings.

Chattanooga: 38º and pimply sissing at 5 p.m.

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