Mercy! Mercy! That Dang Nabed PERCY!

Contemplating the Unthinkable

Contemplating the Unthinkable

What I have been writing about the past few days in this blog has nothing to do with prophetic visions or a position on the Iranian Nuclear Weapons issue. I am an American and not an Israeli or an Iranian. However, I believe that Americans have a stake in this issue since it was an American City that suffered the 911 terrorist attack. Since Iran champions and supports the use of terror throughout the world we would be wise to pay attention to what is going on there. While I assume that Isreal will be targeted, saying they will be at the top of the list is a tenuous assumption indeed. While I hope for the best I urge we plan for the worst.

There are some assumptions that need to be examined and courses laid out in preparation for a scenario that might not be worst case, but is definitely much uglier than anything that’s happened to date. My experience is that if you prepare for the worst you seldom have to deal with its consequences but if you just wring your hands and do nothing ….that's another matter entirely.

The Problem: Determine the best way to deal with a nuclear weapons capable Iran.

Facts:

Currently estimates are that Iran will have a capability in 2 to 3 years.
Russia and China are supporting Iran’s developmental efforts.
Iran has been using inflammatory and threatening rhetoric.
New York City suffered the last terrorist attack.

Assumptions:

Diplomatic efforts and economic sanctions will not deter the Iranians from an acquisition strategy.
There will be no preemptive strikes.
Once Iran has a weapon they will use it in some manner to achieve a political objective.
Russia or China will not covertly provide an advanced weapon or delivery system capability.
Iran’s first development will be a Hiroshima class bomb.
Advance warning of surprise attack would be from 6 hours to 6 months.
Isreal would be a likely but not necessarily the first strike target.

In proceeding beyond this point, a review of options must examine not just a tactical response, but a host of operational and strategic measures designed to deter, mitigate the effects and educate the world to the enivitable consequences.

I think I'll leave the subject at this juncture, to the sandbox of the big boys and girls.