Mercy! Mercy! That Dang Nabed PERCY!

Something Not on the Manifest

Whenever there is a suspected airline hijacking, the investigators should ask, was the purpose to obtain the passengers, an airframe or the cargo? The answer to this question is useful in determining the motive behind out how things played out. In most cases this soon becomes self- evident but in the case of MH 370 it was not.

For example if terrorism is involved then it won’t be long before the hostages are being bargained for some political purpose. If the hijacking were to obtain a delivery platform that could be used without attribution, then there would be less emphasis on the passengers. If the cargo was being stolen then the passengers would receive little mention, since that aspect of the crime would be something the hijackers would prefer forgetting.

In my view hijacking the aircraft for obtaining a deniable delivery platform, seems to be a lot of trouble fraught with unintended consequences that could be avoided using other means. Since there has been no mention of the passengers I will assume these played no role in the intrigue.

What this leaves is the criminal potential of the mystery. There is an elegant and simple logic to the components of such a scenario.

1. Only one of the pilots needs to have been involved.
2. The passengers could have been silenced by decompression or drowning.
3. The airliner could have been landed in relatively shallow water and the cargo later removed by technologies that are inexpensive, well known and time tested.
4. If the cargo was a legal transaction, it could have been deceptively packaged for security reasons.
5. If it were a smuggling activity the mislabeling of the cargo would have been expected.
6. A criminal third party used insider knowledge and acted to intercept the shipment and thereby further their self-interests.

When I write something I usually mull over it for several days as my subconscious does a scrub. I have to say that the heist possibility has moved into the top. Since it would be an easy one to prove and eliminate I hope somebody will be giving an intensive review to the manifest. If I were doing the review I would examine the dimensions of the lithium battery shipping containers. Then I’d calculate how much bullion could be concealed inside. Next I’d check into why lithium batteries were being shipped to China in the first place. Finally I would do a careful screen of the cargo loading personnel. It seems to me that if there was a heist it had to be executed by insiders. This is to say that the intelligence for the planning and capability for the execution came from within the airline community.

1. Only one of the pilots needs to have been involved.

Shortly after the disappearance of flight MH 370 Malaysia Airlines instituted a policy of three pilots in the cockpit. There is some historical precedence for a single pilot, locking out the other and using the opportunity to serve his self-interests. The Malaysian authorities are giving serious weight to this possibility.

2.The passengers could have been silenced by decompression or drowning.

As cold as this might sound anyone willing to take such risks is no doubt willing to suffer the conscience of such a chilling outcome.

3.The airliner could have been landed in relatively shallow water and the cargo later removed by technologies that are well known and developed.

The criminal enterprise would not have to have much in the line of salvage and recovery capability to remove the cargo.

4.The cargo could have been a sanctioned and legal transaction, deceptively packaged for security reasons.

It could be that the Malaysian government routinely miss-labels such shipments to avoid an invitation of theft.

5.If it were part of a smuggling activity, the mislabeling of the cargo becomes self-evident.

There is widespread corruption in this part of the world as well as a viable criminal element. I suspect the government wants to control such sales and smuggling would be profitable for tax avoidance purposes.

6.The response of the consignee to the loss could be a strong indicator of its value.

China has reacted to the missing airliner in a manner that some might consider “Over the Top.” While many of the passengers were Chinese their involvement with satellite imagery, search aircraft, ships and diplomatic pressure suggests there was something on flight MH370 that was not contained on the manifest.