Complex Numbers

April Fools

I considered doing an April Fools' entry but, deciding there's already enough foolishness in the world (and then some), decided against it.

Instead, let's look at a particular brand of fool: the conspiracy theorist.

https://aeon.co/essays/the-intellectual-character-of-conspiracy-theorists

Indeed, peculiar theories about all manner of things are now widespread. There are conspiracy theories about the spread of AIDS, the 1969 Moon landings, UFOs, and the assassination of JFK.

This article is from 2015. I'm sure you've heard the conspiracy theories regarding COVID-19. If not, I don't suggest looking them up.

Sometimes, conspiracy theories turn out to be right – Watergate really was a conspiracy – but mostly they are bunkum.

And Watergate was exposed. In general, the more people there are supposedly involved in a conspiracy, the more vanishingly improbable it is to be true.

A 2009 Harris Poll found that between one‑fifth and one‑quarter of Americans believe in reincarnation, astrology and the existence of witches.

I assure you, witches exist. I've met many. Most of them are actually quite nice, if a little catty in larger groups, and way too fond of New Age music.

The article is fairly long, but worth a read if you're at all interested in why it's so frustrating to argue with conspiracy theorists. Like most internet arguments, it skates perilously closely to epistemology: the study of how we know what we know.

Thing is, I think it would be just as wrong to dismiss conspiracy "theories" out of hand as it would be to uncritically accept them. People in power, for example parts of the US government, have certainly done shady things and covered up mistakes. This, for example.   It's legitimately difficult, sometimes, to separate truth from opinion, opinion from fiction, and facts from speculation.

We see a lot of this on April Fools' Day in particular. The internet is replete with sites that celebrate what I like to call Comedy Christmas by posting something vaguely plausible as fact -- and some people, inevitably, fall for it. This practice, of course, preceded the internet - like this report from 1957   - but the Web has made it easier to get your AFD prank to huge numbers of people.

And yeah, I've been pranked. Chances are you have too. Come on, yes, you have. The only alternative is to accept nothing as fact, and that's just as dangerous as being criminally gullible. Just as foolish, even.

No, the best thing to do is to keep an open mind, but be skeptical at the same time. It's not easy, and I certainly fail at it a lot. We're all fools, but sometimes the fool has the real truth, while others are too blind to see it. The peril lies in believing you're immune to foolishness.