AfCON 2012 soccer event - analysis

The draw for the African Cup of Nations (AfCON) Football tournament in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea next year, has thrown up some interesting pairings with some of the continents big guns missing out on the event.

Sixteen teams have been drawn into four groups of four teams each with the top two from each group advancing to the quarter finals of the competition which is been played in an even year for the last time.

Next year’s event will be without Egypt who have won the competition on the most occasions (seven) as well as four times winners Cameroon, Nigeria who have won it twice and South Africa who hosted the FIFA World Cup last year.

The tourney will be co-hosted by Gabon and Equatorial Guinea and would be played in four cities, Bata, Malabo, Libreville and Franceville on January 21 and runs to February 12, 2012. Botswana, Niger as well as co-hosts Equatorial Guinea, will make their debut in the competition.

Equatorial Guinea has been drawn in Group A together with Libya, Senegal and Zambia in what looks a tough task for the co-hosts.

The Nzanlang Nacional as the Equatorial Guinea team are dubbed in their local language, did not participate in the qualifiers leading up to this the 28th  edition of the AfCON event and has what looks a difficult job on hand if they are to make it to knock out stage of the competition.

Thankfully for them, they have made it to the group phase of the African qualifiers for the 2014 FIFA World Cup to be hosted by Brazil after a two-legged aggregate win over Madagascar and will hope to build on that confidence as they tackle their group opponents at the AfCON event.

Senegal will be the odds on favourites to pick top spot from this group, having shown impressive form in qualifying with the battle for the other slot looking interesting.

Zambia and Egypt qualified for AfCON 2012 from the same group with the former edging out the Libyans to the top spot.

They are expected to renew that battle next year in Bata where the Group A teams would be based. Any slip by either side could play into the hands of Equatorial Guinea who would relish the prospect of picking up the second slot from the group.

The other co-hosts, Gabon have been drawn in Group C alongside Niger, Morocco and Tunisia and will play in Libreville.

The two North African giants (Morocco and Tunisia) looks the favourites to go through from this group, but, their performances in the last few tournaments have not looked good and this could play into the hands of the opposition.

Niger surprised many including themselves in qualifying from a group that also included Egypt and South Africa and will count on that positive karma to cause another upset on this their debut in the competition.

As co-hosts, Gabon will seek to make the most of their home advantage and their build up to this event suggests they cannot be underestimated. They will go all out to press home the opportunity and could be the dark horses in the competition.

For the last three edition of the AfCON tournament, the Ivory Coast have been tagged favourites, but, on all occasions, have failed to leave up to that billing. The closest they came to winning the title was in 2006 when they lost the final to Egypt who hosted the event.

AfCON 2012 presents them with another opportunity to come good on that promise as once again they have been tagged favourites to wrestle the crown.

They will play in Group B together with Sudan, Burkina Faso and Angola and would be based in Malabo in what looks a straight forward path to the last eight.

The battle for second place will be interesting as the other teams look poised for the action with all seemingly on the same level if you measure strengths and weaknesses.

Like the Ivory Coast, Ghana have flattered to deceive in the past, having fallen where it mattered most on the big stage. They lost in the finals in 1992 to the Ivory Coast and in 2010 to Egypt and this is all they have to show for since winning their fourth title in 1982.

It’s been 29 long years since they last lifted the trophy, but confidence in their camp is high as far as this competition is concerned after enjoying some success on the international stage in the last couple of years.

The Black Stars will play in Group D with Botswana, Mali and Guinea, and are hopeful of negotiating a smooth passage from this stage as they seek to win their fifth title at this level.

The challenge in Franceville is expected to be spearheaded by Guinea who defied all odds to kick out Nigeria from the qualifiers. They collected four of the six points against the Super Eagles in qualifying, and would be a handful for any opposition.

Mali has always been there or thereabout without making any significant achievement at this level. They have not made good of the huge talent at their disposal and it could turn out to be another disappointment for them next year.

The surprise package during the qualifiers were Botswana who topped their group that included Tunisia who they beat home and away. They will hope that fairy tale continues next year hoping to produce many more surprises.

The build up to this event looks good and we wait to see which nation will make the most of this opportunity to win the title next year now that Egypt who have won it on the last three editions will be absent.