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For Authors: September 27, 2017 Issue [#8526]

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For Authors


 This week: 1,000 True Fans
  Edited by: Jeff Author IconMail Icon
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Table of Contents

1. About this Newsletter
2. A Word from our Sponsor
3. Letter from the Editor
4. Editor's Picks
5. A Word from Writing.Com
6. Ask & Answer
7. Removal instructions

About This Newsletter

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"In three words, I can sum up everything
I've learned about life: it goes on."
-- Robert Frost


Trivia of the Week: Kevin Kelly's hypothesis about 1,000 true fans has been the subject of much debate, garnering high profile advocates and critics on both sides. Influencers like Seth Godin and Tim Ferriss have both delved into the idea at length, while author John Scalzi cautions against using the model to fool yourself into thinking that kind of success is easy to achieve.


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Letter from the editor

1,000 TRUE FANS


In 2008, Kevin Kelly wrote an essay  Open in new Window. that went a little viral among entrepreneurs of all stripes, from business owners to authors. In essence, his argument is that you don't need millions of followers or hundreds of thousands of sales to make a comfortable living; you just need to find 1,000 true fans, which are defined as those fans who will purchase anything you create and go out of their way to support you.

The essay itself is worth a read, but here's the short version: if you create enough product for 1,000 true fans to buy $100 worth of your product every year, that's a $100,000 per year income, which is enough to make ends meet pretty much anywhere if you maintain a financially responsible lifestyle.

For the purposes of this newsletter, let's talk in terms of self-published authors. And let's say a self-published author publishes two books per year at a price of $4. If you have 1,000 true fans, that's $4,000 from in book sales alone. But don't forget that a true fan is also someone who promotes you to their family and friends. So if each of those 1,000 true fans convinces just two other people to buy your book each year, that's another $8,000 ($12K total). If you decide to offer a special hardcover, autographed version of your book for $20, your true fans will buy that even if they already own the ebook originals. That's another $20,000 ($32K total). If you decide to offer a $40 webinar course of some kind on a related topic, your true fans are there for you too. Add another $40,000 ($72K total). If you decide that your true fans are excited enough about your stories to create an $18 coffee mug featuring your protagonist or a clever quote from the book, you just made another $18,000 and have now made your $100K for the year.

At least that's how the theory goes. And it can be harder with books because the profit margins are so low. 1,000 true fans of a band, for example, could put $100 in the artist's pocket by going to two shows and downloading the album. 1,000 true fans of an athlete will attend a game, buy a jersey, and that's probably all they need to do. 1,000 true fans of an app might could easily spend $100 on in-app add-on purchases throughout the year. Most authors, especially a self-published author selling $4 ebooks, don't write nearly enough books to make $100,000 a year from 1,000 fans. That would mean publishing twenty-five books a year! *Shock*

That's where a lot of this criticism stems from; depending on the circumstances, 1,000 true fans might not cut it.

If you're an author who self-publishes one book a year at $4, you'd actually need 25,000 fans to make $100,000 a year. And don't forget, a true fan is someone who will literally buy anything you create. That doesn't include readers who are casual fans (the ones who actually read the synopsis of a book to decide whether the subject matter interests them, even if they generally like the author), or one-offs who try a book or two from you and decide that you're not at the top of their list of author faves. If you're an independent author and maintain a mailing list for connecting with your fans, let's assume you have a 5% conversion rate (i.e., that when you email your list and announce a new book, only 5% of the recipients actually open the email and follow all the way through to buying it). In order for 25,000 people to buy the book at a 5% conversion rate, you'd need to have a list over half a million strong!

And now you see why this hypothesis can be problematic. People might initially look at it and think, "Wow, I only need 1,000 people? That seems super easy!" The truth is that getting to 1,000 true fans (or whatever number you need to hit based on your products' frequency of release and price point) is actually quite difficult and will most likely require a long time. It probably won't happen within a week of publishing your first book.

All that said, I think there are two important positive takeaways from this hypothesis:

It's better to cultivate true fans than casual (or worse, unengaged) fans.

There are a lot of marketers out there that will tell you the goal should be to get as many people on your list as possible, and to just get that first sale. Authors will sometimes run crazy promotions (deep discounts on or free giveaways of their books, contests where they give away Kindles or other goodies to those who sign up, etc.), just to run up the numbers on their list, the rationale being that the cost of a Kindle, for example, would be more than earned back if even 1% of the 5,000 people who enter buy your book when you hit them with the sales pitch. Other authors will write a high volume of sloppy books, just to keep churning out material. And still other authors will purchase email lists from other sources, or pester their friends and family, or spend all of their social media time hocking their products, without giving any real thought to whether it's even a product those individuals would be interested in. Some people just don't like romance or sci-fi or horror, no matter who wrote it. *Wink*

The trouble with this kind of strategy is that it's expensive and wasteful. Most mailing list services (AWeber, MailChimp, Active Campaign, etc.) have pricing tiers that require you to pay more money the more email addresses you have on your list. MailChimp for example, currently prices an unlimited plan for up to 1,000 email addresses at $15 per month, and an unlimited plan for up to 10,000 email addresses at $75 per month. So if you're indiscriminately adding any email address you can find, you may have a list that's ten times the size, but you're also paying an extra $60 per month ($720 per year!) for the privilege. And a 1% conversion rate on 10,000 addresses (100 people) is the exact same number of sales as a 10% conversion rate on 1,000 addresses.

There are also ancillary effects of having casual or unengaged fans. Those individuals are far more likely to review your work poorly, not promote (and maybe even criticize it) to other potential customers, and to ignore you or even remove themselves from your list if they don't see continued value in what you're providing.

True fans reward you with compound interest.

At the beginning, finding true fans is going to be difficult. Especially if you're just publishing your first book or haven't spent time cultivating a following before. But the great thing about being an author is that your backlist can create passive income that will have impact and value far above and beyond any one new release, and true fans can help you find new true fans. Here's an example:

If you have 1,000 true fans when you sell your first book at $4, you earn $4,000. When you release your next book at $4, that's another $4,000. Fast forward a couple years and you're on book #5. Your 1,000 true fans are still going to earn you $4,000 for book #5. But let's say you pick up a new true fan at this point, quite possibly because one of those 1,000 friends told a friend with similar taste in material, "Have you read so-and-so's book yet? Oh, you have to. It's so great!" So sale #1,001 is someone who's never read your work before and absolutely loves it. What's he or she going to do? Well, a true fan wants to read everything you've written, so he or she probably goes back and buys your old books too if they become a true fan. Therefore, book #5 made you $4,004 dollars plus another $16 (your four previous books at $4 each).

And this is how true fans can really make an author a lot of money. As you write and publish more material, you create more of a backlist for your fans to find. Some self-published authors out there like Mark Dawson have even done an impressive amount of math to calculate the value of each new reader. For example, he's figured that for readers who read the first book in his series, a certain percentage (call it 5%) go on to read the next book in the series. And a certain percentage (call it 10%) who read both of the first two books go on to read the third. And a significantly increased percentage (call it 25%) go on to read the whole series if they've read the first three books. If he were to sell each of his books at that $4 price point, and he has 10 books in the series, that's a lot of potential revenue. He knows that if he can buy a Facebook ad that, say, convinces 200 people to buy the book, he'll likely make somewhere in the neighborhood of $844 and $872 ($800 from 200 people buying Book #1 + $40 from 10 people who buy Book #2 + $4 from the 1 person who buys Book #3 + a 25% chance of that 1 person also spending another $28 for Books #4-10) ... which means that even if he spent $100 on the ad itself, that's a tidy profit plus he has a reasonable shot at gaining an additional true fan who will buy Book #11 when it comes out!

All this said, when you think about the idea of cultivating fans of your work, consider the 1,000 True Fans hypothesis. Not necessarily literally, but in terms of the value that hardcore, dedicated fans have over the less engaged, casual fans. They may take longer to find and more effort to cultivate, but if you can attract true fans to your writing and consistently meet or exceed their expectations with your work, it's entirely possible to make more money from true fans than you to from one-off promotions or wild shots at huge groups of people. And with the money that true fans are willing to spend on you, it's feasible to financially support yourself with your art. It won't be easy by any stretch of the imagination, but it's far from impossible. *Smile*

Until next time,


Jeff Author IconMail Icon
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If you're interested in checking out my work:
"Blogocentric FormulationsOpen in new Window.
"New & Noteworthy ThingsOpen in new Window.


Editor's Picks


This month's official Writing.com writing contest is:


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Journey Through Genres: Official Contest Open in new Window. [E]
Write a short story in the given genre to win big prizes!
by Writing.Com Support Author Icon



Next month's official Writing.com writing contest will be:


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What a Character! : Official WDC Contest Open in new Window. [E]
Create a memorable character using the given prompt for huge prizes!
by Writing.Com Support Author Icon



I also encourage you to check out the following items:



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by A Guest Visitor

EXCERPT: “Kaori, wait up!”

I turn and watch Rina hurry up the shaded sidewalk, bangs flapping against fair forehead as the wind catches them. Even after a lifetime, I still can’t help but feel a twinge of envy at the sight of her uncovered head. Across the street, I catch sight of two kimono-clad women furtively pointing and casting glances my way.

I get that a lot. When you’re born with an unsightly, bony hump that sticks out of your skull, people can’t help but give you the circus sideshow treatment.


 Invalid Item Open in new Window. []

by A Guest Visitor

EXCERPT: Justin took his eyes of the book for a second. He stood still, barely breathing. There was a strange sound coming from the the foyer. He got up and slowly walked to the door, trying to figure out what was happening. There were sirens. There was a strong and controlled voice. There was crying. Someone was crying. The nuns were crying.

Still barefoot, he walked through the hall. The wood floor made small cracks as each feet touched the ground and his breath echoed through the walls. Justin reached for the foyer door and saw Sister Martina, one of the oldest nuns in the parochy, sobbing almost uncontrollably while the others were trying to confort her. Sister Mary was talking to a police officer.


 Awaiting (short writing) Open in new Window. [E]
Waiting for love is painful, especially when you've already done it.
by Tera Author Icon

EXCERPT: Awaited, I have.
So many days, so many weeks, so many months.
I have waited endless hours.
I have waited so long that I had begun to wonder if I was ever going to be capable of loving anyone.

Then you came along, and I was over the top happy.
I smiled so much, I smiled with my teeth for the first time since I was twelve.
I had barely known you granted, I only saw you in the hallways at school.
But I swear the moment I started talking to you, I felt a spark flicker.
Over the course of the next few weeks, my heart raced and my stomach
flipped, my hands shook and my head spun, just for you.


 When Virgo comes home (1039 words) Open in new Window. [E]
(Too) Late entry for the Zodiac contest: Virgo. Home scenery. No one was harmed!
by Kaithleen De Nante Author Icon

EXCERPT: Gilbert stepped inside the house and took it all in; toys strewn across the hall leading up to the dining room, kitchen and living room, all of which filled with toys and most of all, sneaky little pieces of Lego. He let the swarm of children welcome him as he made eye contact with his wife Cathrina, a shy smile plastered on her weary face. She hadn't slept well last night because of the medicine giving her intense cramps, waking him up sporadically as well. He placed his business bag against the wall and spoke.

"Hey." He said to her with a mild smile.

"Hey there..." she replied, unsure. She was still in her PJs and her hair looked flat with frizzled ends.


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by A Guest Visitor

EXCERPT: "Best be hurrying along now" Said Pressed Rat a bit agitated. "Wont be wanting the Provost catching up with us."

"Sooner we're off planet the better" snorted Warthog.

They scurried down back alleys and side street on the way to the docks. Always keeping an eye out for Provost officers. The last thing they wanted was to be caught with the sack they carried. They needed to get it off planet. The sooner the better. They rounded the corner leading to the docks and sighed when they saw their ship the S/V Brave Ulysses. An FTL prism propelled light trader.There was no one guarding it so they might make their escape unscathed. They got to the ship and hoisted the three legged sack aboard.

Pressed Rat entered the cockpit and went through the Start-up procedure. No matter what kind of hurry they were in there is no excuse for not making sure the ship responds and passes all preflight tests. Their very lives depend on it. No place to cut corners.

 
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Ask & Answer


Feedback from my last newsletter about the team behind an author ("For Authors Newsletter (September 27, 2017)Open in new Window.):



Gaby Author Icon writes: "As always, great NL, Jeff! I have yet to bypass the Beta Reader, but it is good to know what all goes into the process of publishing a book. If you could talk to my husband about all that, that would be wonderful, since he thinks that all I have to do is write and that's all. *Laugh*

I've considered self-publishing but have never been a big fan. While you may not get exactly what you hope for from traditional publishing, you do have less work and less tress, but most importantly a better exposure with it. We can always change the publisher down the road, right? "

There are definitely pros and cons to self-publishing. Those things are exactly the things that appeal to me about the idea... control over your own marketing, distribution, cover design, etc. But then again I've always had a bit of an entrepreneurial streak and day-to-day business stuff interests me. I definitely understand why a lot of writers would think, "Hey, I just want to write the books and let someone else deal with that stuff!" *Laugh*



Boulden Shade (fka Jeff Meyer) Author Icon writes: "This was a fantastic and helpful article. I'll be archiving this for future reference. Thank you very much for posting this for us. --Jeff Meyer"

Thank you for reading and taking the time to send in some feedback!



Word Warrior beating cancer!! Author Icon writes: "socialscribe thanks SO much for this valuable newsletter!! I really learned a lot, and having already published and released two books, I've found that no matter how much my fans rave about how much they loved the books, I just CANNOT seem to get them to take five minutes of their time (or less) and post a review to Amazon! It drives me insane! Now that I've requested an ARC Team and told them that I'll require them to write a review in exchange for being an Advanced Reader, hopefully that will all change. The Street Team thing is amazing as well! Sooo many times I've wished I'd had a group of people to help me spread the word, help hand out flyers, etc - this newsletter will be of tremendous help to me! Thanks again!! *Heart*"

You're very welcome! Keep at it; sometimes it can take a while to build that street team, but once you find those people, they'll always be there for you. *Smile*



Quick-Quill Author Icon writes: "Jeff another terrific NL. My beta readers for my novel were a surprise. I asked the wife of a co worker to ask her retired English teacher to read my MS and let me know if it was any good. She came back and said their book club wanted to read my MS as a project. I quickly made 8 copies of my MS with instructions to get out red pens, pencils, crayon or markers and write anything they didn't get.
When I came back at the end of the month they were estatic. All of them loved the story and most read it in one sitting. I picked up 7 of the 8 copies (one was on vacation) and after the first few pages no red marks. I asked why? They said they didn't want to stop to mark anything they just wanted to finish the story.... I got it published. "

Congratulations on publishing your manuscript! Sounds like the book club really enjoyed it!



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