Senior Research Project: What can the worldwide community do to prevent World War III? |
There are many reasons that forces nations to war. One could be the obvious lack of sanity from the leader, ala the Axis Powers: Hitler, Togo, and Mussolini. In the novel Nineteen Eighty-Four, George Orwell believes that war is a tool to distract and inspire fear to the masses. And then there’s the Malthusian Theory. Created by Pope Urban II on the eve of the First Crusade in 1095, it is the idea that war is caused by expanding needs and people. (Wikipedia 6) Many, including me, believe that Iranian president, Dr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and North Korean Chairman of the National Defense Commission, Kim Jong-il, exemplify purely insane leaders. Some believe that the United States are using a possible scenario of World War III to pressure us to use force against the two. However all can agree that the Malthusian Theory is alive and well. The American Population, as of April 1st, 2000, is at 281,421,906, a thirteen percent increase from the 1990 Census. The number now makes the U.S. the third most populous country in the world, behind only India and China (Wikipedia 5) Most right wing politicians and reporters have said that right now we are in the third World War. I undoubtedly disagree with that statement. However, if we cannot lower our defense and speak to the two nations, I believe, without a shadow of a doubt, that our worst nightmare forty years ago could be our reality now. In the months leading up to October 9th, 2006, Kim Jong-il represented many things to us. Some saw him as a ruthless and evil dictator, having testing short and long range missiles (capable of hitting the west coast) four months ago. Some saw him as a goofy marionette that sang “I’m so Ronery” in Team America: World Police, and others saw him as a surprising narcissistic victim of American pop culture, wearing stilts to make himself taller, owning an iPod, obsessing over Michael Jordan, and even producing a film called Diary of a Girl Student. But on that October day, we all switched our attention to that small nation. North Korea first warned fellow communist country and great ally China, that a nuclear test was about to commence in twenty minutes. In turn, China sent an emergency broadcast to Washington D.C. North Korean government stated that the underground nuclear device weighted in at four kilotons, but there have been some disputes on how big was the device. The U.S. believed it was about half a kiloton, while Russia said it was between five and fifteen kilotons. It really didn’t matter how big it was, what matter was the surprising discontent against North Korea, with even longtime ally China saying that the test should bring “punitive actions”. (CNN.com 2) In their first speech after the test, North Korea hailed it as a success, and warned that any intervention, American, U.N. or otherwise, will bring “physical retaliation”. During this time, soldiers in democratic South Korea are training for nuclear warfare, Japan announced a complete ban on all North Korean imports, and the American President George W. Bush called for strict sanctions against the communist regime but stated that the U.S. has “no intentions of attacking” (Foxnews.com 2). Although Iran’s relations with the U.S. are more stable than North Korea’s, both governments are at throats with each other. The subject of the problem is Iran’s stubborn approach to enrich uranium. Iran has stated time and time again that the enrichment project is to merely generate electricity for the nation. However, the United States believe the enrichment project is used to create nuclear weapons designed to attack a country like Israel. It’s painfully clear that Dr. Ahamadinejad is a bit more sane than Jong-il, but any man who denies six million Jews dying in the worst mass genocide in history is clearly not right (even now Iran has begun an “International Conference to Review the Global Vision of the Holocaust”, in which the U.S. State Department declared it "yet another disgraceful act on this particular subject by the regime in Tehran.”)(Wikipedia 1). But maybe being cut off from the world isn’t Adamadinejad’s fault. To look into the history of the latter half of the twentieth century shows our predecessors at conflicts with Iran. We took the side of the Saddam Hussein led Iraq against Iran in the bloody Iran-Iraq War. The infamous Iran Hostage Crisis, in which Tehran University students rebelled against the U.S. Even now, anti-American slogans are still plastered over concrete, and many Iranians still resent America. Any and all attempts have been for naught, as either Ahamadinejad collapses in part because of antagonistic comments, or America repeatedly denying Iran in any worldwide discussion. The main reason why World War I and II were called that was that it affected the world. Whether you lived in Middleton, New York, Chicago, London, Berlin, Sydney, Tokyo, or Tehran, it affected you. The face of mankind would be deeply scarred if the next World War commenced. Even now, many countries are deeply hurting from this. The North Koreans western world pipeline will run dry when things such as iPods and ski jets are denied. North Korea right now is getting an “us against the world” feel. No one wants Jong-il to have access to nuclear power, Not the United States, not the United Nations, not the European Union, and not even North Korea’s allies want this insane dictator to have access to a device and can end life as we know it. This has caused fear within the world, and since 9-11, we have acted like someone with Obsessive Compulsive Disorder, always needing to do things our way and lashing out against anyone that prevents us from doing that. Even with all that, the real fear comes when we don’t solve this, when Iran keeps its uranium enrichment, when North Korea keeps its nuclear power, when on the global stages, lines are drawn, alliances are mad and a call to arms is heard. The basic reality is that if we don’t solve this, World War III will be here, around forty years later than expected. Even worse is that we have advanced our military power. In the 1940’s, the U.S. quite simply obliterated Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of World War II. That was sixty years ago, and the allies had the bomb. What would happen if Iran decided to use its enriched uranium to attack Israel? What would happen if Kim Jong-il finally snapped and attacked South Korea, Japan, China, or even us? 9-11 will pale in comparison if a nuclear strike was declared on the American west coast. In contrast, an American strike against Iran or North Korea would be just as, and maybe even more, destructive. The Oxford Research group stated that military deaths would reach into the thousands in part to Iran’s limited forces. Civilian deaths would be in the hundreds, many perishing in air strikes (Rogers 4). The shape of what’s to come seems bleak, and it is, but the one trait that any human has, no matter how insane of evil, which separates us from others in the animal kingdom is reason. The doomsday scenario has and can be disrupted. Many believe the conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union would erupt into war, but thanks to peaceful negotiations, the Cold War became forty years of paranoia instead of forty years of war. Peace with Iran and North Korea can be reached but only if it’s preformed very carefully. First, the American government and people need to get this: holding down North Korea and Iran will only make things worse. The one main reason a country joins the arms race is because they want power. Repeatedly and repeatedly, Iran and North Korea (as well as other countries) have been outside looking in at the great conflicts on this planet. The two countries can be described as children: If they are ignored, then they will do something to gain attention. George Bush, the leader of a country, labeled as a self-appointed leader of the free world, should sit down with Jong-il and Ahmadinejad and talk, no matter how much one hates another. If this can’t be possible, then the U.S. shouldn’t be in talks. The U.N. houses other countries that, even more than the U.S., can relate themselves to Iran and North Korea. North Korea could relate by talking with the countries that closest, like South Korea, India, China, Russia, and Japan. Iranians would benefit if Muslim leaders in government went to Tehran and talk with Ahmadinejad. The main focus is communication. We need to communicate with North Korea and Iran. If they’re attention starved children, then we should hand them a bit more power and a bit louder voice if it means steering away from conflict. In conclusion, we as humans have the strain of war embedded in our DNA. We cannot bypass that. But also as humans, the strain of peace is there too. If we compromise and communicate now, then the ones after us will not have to deal with the barren wasteland promised to us forty years ago. |